Modeling and Forecasting Mortality in Iran: 1996-2041

Eini-Zinab H¹* (PhD), Shams-Ghahfarokhi F² (MA), Sajedi A³ (MA), Khosravi A⁴ (PhD), Zahedian A⁵ (MA), Rezaei Ghahroodi Z⁶ (PhD), Noorollahi T⁶ (MA)

¹ Department of Community Nutrition, School of Nutrition Sciences & Food Technology,

Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

² Department of sociology, School of Social Sciences, Allameh Tabatabaei University

³ Civil Registration Organization of Iran

⁴ Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Iran

⁵ Deputy of Technical and Statistical Projects, Statistical Center of Iran

⁶ Statistical Research & Training Center, Iran

Original Article

Received: 12 Sep 2015, Accepted: 20 Dec 2015

Abstract

Introduction: This study models mortality changes in Iran during 1996-2011, then forecasts it until 2041. With central age-specific mortality rates at hand, annual life tables for the period 1996-2041 are constructed. The central age-specific mortality rates are also forecasted for the next 30 years (2012-2041).

Methods: First the existing mortality data were evaluated for accuracy and validity. Then they were modeled using the Lee and Carter method. Deaths registered by the National Organization for Civil Registration during 1996-2011, and Population and Housing Censuses during the period from Statistical Center of Iran were the main sources of data. The corrected and adjusted data were used for modeling change of level of mortality during 1996-2011. The models were then used to forecast mortality for the next period.

Results: The results of the analysis showed a slightly declining trend in Crude Death Rate, from 6.5 in 1996 to 6.1 per 1000 population in 2011. Male life expectancy at birth has risen from 66.3 to 71.1 years during the period. The corresponding values for females are 68.4 and 75.7 years, respectively. Life expectancy for male births is forecasted to be 74.8 years (%95 CI: 72.9-76.2) at 2041. This forecast for female births is 82.5 years (%95 CI: 79.8-84.3).

Conclusion: With current level of Crude Death Rate, Iran is among countries with low child mortality rate and elderly deaths due to low proportion of elderly population. The increasing trend in age-specific mortality rates for population aged 18-35 years seems to be the main reason for slow increase in male life expectancy at birth for the next 30 years.

Key words: modeling, forecasting, central age-specific mortality rates, life expectancy, registered deaths, census, Iran

Please cite this article as follows:

Eini-Zinab H, Shams-Ghahfarokhi F, Sajedi A, Khosravi A, Zahedian A, Rezaei Ghahroodi Z, Noorollahi T. Modeling and Forecasting Mortality in Iran: 1996-2041. Hakim Health Sys Res 2016; 18(4): 336- 346.