Search published articles
Volume 10, Issue 4 (1-2008)
Introduction: Healthy life expectancy (HALE) for every country is estimable in global and national level studies, in which the used data, methodologies, and hence the estimates’ values are not necessarily completely identical. Therefore, the current study was performed to estimate healthy life expectancy for Iran’s population, with use of the national-level studies’ data and methodologies for the first time.
Methods: For estimation of life expectancy for 23 out of 28 provinces of Iran (in 2003), registered deaths for 23 provinces were used. For population of 23 provinces, information from Ministry of Health was used and its distribution was taken similar to the results of Demographic and Health Survey of year 1379 (2000), and taken also equal to results of graduation of population from year 1375 (1996) census. Life expectancy was estimated with direct method. Years Lived with Disability (YLD) was calculated from prevalence of diseases and their disability weights, and used in
Results: HALE at birth was 62.13 years for total population (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 61.02-63.16), 61.55 years for males (95% CI: 60.61-62.50), and 62.79 years for females (95% CI: 61.84-63.71).
Conclusion: National estimate of healthy life expectancy is 4.5 years higher than similar model-based estimate by World Health Organization. The reason is difference in direct and indirect estimation methods for specific mortality rates and hence the life expectancy, and difference in burden of disability estimation methods used in national and global burden of disease studies.
Hakim Research Journal 2008 10(4): 66- 76.
Volume 18, Issue 4 (1-2016)
Modeling and Forecasting Mortality in Iran: 1996-2041
Eini-Zinab H1* (PhD), Shams-Ghahfarokhi F2 (MA), Sajedi A3 (MA), Khosravi A4 (PhD), Zahedian A5 (MA), Rezaei Ghahroodi Z6 (PhD), Noorollahi T6 (MA)
1 Department of Community Nutrition, School of Nutrition Sciences & Food Technology,
Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
2 Department of sociology, School of Social Sciences, Allameh Tabatabaei University
3 Civil Registration Organization of Iran
4 Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Iran
5 Deputy of Technical and Statistical Projects, Statistical Center of Iran
6 Statistical Research & Training Center, Iran
Original Article
Received: 12 Sep 2015, Accepted: 20 Dec 2015
Abstract
Introduction: This study models mortality changes in Iran during 1996-2011, then forecasts it until 2041. With central age-specific mortality rates at hand, annual life tables for the period 1996-2041 are constructed. The central age-specific mortality rates are also forecasted for the next 30 years (2012-2041).
Methods: First the existing mortality data were evaluated for accuracy and validity. Then they were modeled using the Lee and Carter method. Deaths registered by the National Organization for Civil Registration during 1996-2011, and Population and Housing Censuses during the period from Statistical Center of Iran were the main sources of data. The corrected and adjusted data were used for modeling change of level of mortality during 1996-2011. The models were then used to forecast mortality for the next period.
Results: The results of the analysis showed a slightly declining trend in Crude Death Rate, from 6.5 in 1996 to 6.1 per 1000 population in 2011. Male life expectancy at birth has risen from 66.3 to 71.1 years during the period. The corresponding values for females are 68.4 and 75.7 years, respectively. Life expectancy for male births is forecasted to be 74.8 years (%95 CI: 72.9-76.2) at 2041. This forecast for female births is 82.5 years (%95 CI: 79.8-84.3).
Conclusion: With current level of Crude Death Rate, Iran is among countries with low child mortality rate and elderly deaths due to low proportion of elderly population. The increasing trend in age-specific mortality rates for population aged 18-35 years seems to be the main reason for slow increase in male life expectancy at birth for the next 30 years.
Key words: modeling, forecasting, central age-specific mortality rates, life expectancy, registered deaths, census, Iran
Please cite this article as follows:
Eini-Zinab H, Shams-Ghahfarokhi F, Sajedi A, Khosravi A, Zahedian A, Rezaei Ghahroodi Z, Noorollahi T. Modeling and Forecasting Mortality in Iran: 1996-2041. Hakim Health Sys Res 2016; 18(4): 336- 346.
* Corresponding Author: No 7, Hafezi St., Farahzadi Blvd. Department of Community Nutrition, School of Nutrition Sciences & Food Technology, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran. Tel: +98- 21- 22360656 (Ext. 249), Fax: +98- 21- 22376467, E-mail: Hassan.eini@sbmu.ac.ir
Volume 22, Issue 4 (12-2019)
Life Expectancy Changes for Each Subway Station: Taking Social Determinants of Health Seriously More Than Ever
Reza Esmaeili 1*
1Assistance Professor, Department of Community Medicine, Social Determinants of Health Research Center, School of Medicine, Gonabad University of Medical Sciences, Gonabad, Iran
Abstract
Nowadays, health inequalities are emerging at short geographic distances, even among the districts of a city in developed and developing countries. In response to these conditions, it is important to study the role of socioeconomic structures and factors in the incidence and distribution of health outcomes. In a five-level framework, the knowledge network of the Commission on Social Determinants of Health clarifies the mechanism of the effect of social determinants on the creation of differences and inequalities in the health of different population groups. The present paper examines the evidence of health inequalities at international and regional levels and explains its reasons.
Keywords: Health Inequality; Health Equity; Social Determinants of Health; Life Expectancy
| Please cite this article as follows: Esmaeili R. Life Expectancy Changes for Each Subway Station: Taking Social Determinants of Health Seriously More Than Ever. Hakim Health Sys Res. 2019; 22(4): 258-260. |
*Corresponding Author: Assistance Professor, Gonabad University of Medical Sciences, Imam Khomeini St., Gonabad, Khorasan Razavi, Iran. Tel: +98-57223028, Fax: +98-57227114, Email: esmaeili.r@gmu.ac.ir
Volume 23, Issue 1 (3-2020)
Methods: This study is a descriptive-analytical, applied, and correlational study that used a vector error correction model for Iran at the national level. The annual time series data were extracted from the World Bank database and statistical yearbooks of the Iranian Statistical Center for the years 1990–2017. The estimates of the research model and required tests were performed in Eviews 10 software.
Results: The results showed that if the physician supply increased by one percent in the previous year, life expectancy would increase by 0.11 percent. Also, with each one percent increase in the gross national income, health expenditures, and average years of schooling, life expectancy increases by 0.0005, 0.001, and 0.04 percent, respectively.
Conclusion: Physician supply, gross national income, health spending, and mean years of education had positive impacts on life expectancy in Iran. Thus, adopting policies to optimize physician supply if does not lead to induced demand, as well as enacting and enforcing laws to prevent induced demand, can improve the health status in Iran.
| Please cite this article as follows: Shahraki M, Ghaderi S. Effect of health resources on health status in Iran. Hakim Health Sys Res. 2020; 23(1): 122-129. |
*Corresponding Author: Department of Economics, Faculty of Management and Human Science, Chabahar Maritime University, Chabahar, Iran. Tel: (+98)5431272241. E-mail: shahraki@cmu.ac.ir
Volume 23, Issue 4 (12-2020)
Introduction: Avoidable mortality is one of the indicators that shows the effectiveness and efficiency of health policies in society. Accordingly, this study seeks to analyze the contribution of avoidable mortality in improving Iran’s life expectancy during 2006-201.
Methods: Data on causes of death by age and sex were obtained from the system of registration and classification of causes of death of the Ministry of Health, Treatment and Medical Education and were used after correcting for under reporting and misclassification of causes of death. Also, using the decomposition method, the contribution of avoidable deaths and other causes of death in increasing life expectancy has been calculated.
Results: The findings of this study showed that avoidable deaths caused 1.3 years and 1.2 years of increase in life expectancy (0-74 years old) of men and women in Iran during 2006 to 2016. Avoidable deaths in old age have played an important role in increasing the life expectancy between 0 and 74 years of both sexes, and among the causes of death, ischemic heart disease with 0.8 years for women and 0.7 years for men has been the main reason for the improvement of this index in Iran.
Conclusion: The cause of most avoidable deaths is diseases that can be prevented through treatment. But because investing in treatment is not economical, investing in preventive care is more effective and beneficial in preventing death.
Please cite this article as follows:
Sasanipour M, Khosravi A. Investigating the contribution of avoidable deaths in improving life expectancy in Iran during 2006-2016. Hakim Health Sys Res. 2020; 23(4):385-394.
Volume 24, Issue 3 (12-2021)
Introduction: In almost all societies and at all ages, men have a higher mortality rate than women. In this study, the contribution of the main causes of death in the increase of male mortality in the provinces of Iran in 2016 has been analyzed.
Methods: Provincial death data by age group, sex and causes of death were obtained from the registration system of the Ministry of Health and Medical Education. After correcting the under registration of death data, using the standard life table technique, life expectancy at birth was calculated for men and women in the provinces of Iran. Finally, the role of the main causes of death in the sex differences of life expectancy at birth was calculated.
Results: The increase in women’s life expectancy in Iran ranged from 2 years in Kohgoluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad provinces to 4 years in Fars and Hamedan provinces in 2016. This figure was 3 years in Iran. Unintentional accidents, cardiovascular disease, and cancers and tumors are the most important causes of sex differences in life expectancy at birth in favor of women. However, there are significant differences in the share of major causes of death in sex differences in life expectancy at the provincial level.
Conclusion: Behavioral and lifestyle factors are the most important factors of sex difference in life expectancy at birth in Iran, which due to its preventability, with proper planning, can reduce the sex difference in death and help increase life expectancy.
| Page 1 from 1 |
Related Websites
Site Keywords
نشریه, Academic Journal, Scientific Article, کلمه شماره یک, کلمه شماره یک, کلمه شماره یک, کلمه شماره یک, کلمه شماره دو, کلمه شماره یک, کلمه دو
© 2025 CC BY-NC 4.0 | Hakim Journal
Designed & Developed by: Yektaweb